Climate-fragility risks in the Philippine Bangsamoro (2021-2023)

Funded by the United States Institute of Peace

Storms stronger than Tropical Storm Nalgae have lashed the Philippines in 2022, but the extreme rainfall unleashed by Nalgae in late October 2022 spurred landslides and flooding, making it among the season’s deadliest and most destructive storms to hit the island nation. NASA Earth Observatory.

PrincipaI investigator
Dr. Laurence L. DELINA

Project partner
(Ret.) Prof. Rufa CAGOCO-GUIAM

Social science specialist
Mr. Jon GAVIOLA

Spatial science specialist
Mr. Homer PAGKALINAWAN

Postdoctoral Fellows
Dr. Nicolo Paolo Ludovice
Dr. Lei SHI

Climate change exacerbates humanitarian challenges, reduces development, and undermines people’s adaptation capacity. As climate change intensifies—to the level of an emergency—in the Philippines, one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable countries, many of the old drivers of conflict can resurface in the Bangsamoro region in Mindanao island, which is the site of decades-old struggle and violent conflicts, while new drivers can also emerge. The path to sustainable peace is impossible unless climate change and conflict effects are tackled together. With the Philippines being extremely climate change-vulnerable, the short-term benefits of the recently concluded peace agreement in Bangsamoro can be easily jeopardized. In this project, we assessed and outlined the specific and complex ways in which the risks affecting the Bangsamoro people are linked and designed and developed novel strategies to address these emergent climate-fragility risks. This project is the first to be implemented in the Bangsamoro, where decades-old conflicts between government and rebel forces have been punctuated by several peace pacts only for old conflicts to resurface. It is among the pioneering works on climate-fragility risk assessments in one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable countries.

Outputs

Journal article: Delina, L., Jon Gaviola, Homer Pagkalinawan and Rufa Cagoco-Guiam. Towards a peace-positive climate adaptation in conflict-fragile Philippine Bangsamoro, Journal of Peacebuilding and Development accepted

Journal article: Delina, L., Jon Gaviola and Homer Pagkalinawan. (2024). Unveiling the climate-conflict nexus: Examining the influence of weather extremes on conflict emergence in the Philippine Bangsamoro. Environment and Security https://doi.org/10.1177/27538796241226780

Journal article: Delina, L. L., Ludovice, N. P. P., Gaviola, J., & Cagoco-Guiam, R. (2022). Living with climate and state fragility in a “chaotic paradise:” securitizing livelihoods in the Philippines’ Cotabato River Basin. Climate Risk Management, 42, 100558. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2023.100558

Policy Brief: Delina, L.L., Gaviola, J., and Cagoco-Guiam, R. 2022. Towards a climate-sensitive and peace-positive climate change adaptation in climate and conflict fragile communities in the Philippine Bangsamoro.
Email for a copy.

Conference Presentation: Delina, L.L., Jon Gaviola, and Rufa Cagoco-Guiam. (2022). Climate fragility risks and conflict emergence in Bangsamoro’s Maguindanao province, The Fifth Philippine Studies Conference, Tokyo University, Japan, 26-27 November.

Opinion piece: Climate change – a threat multiplier, 6 August 2023, Rufa Cagoco-Guiam, Bohol Chronicle

Opinion piece: Are ‘natural disasters’ natural? (part 2), 23 January 2023, Rufa Cagoco-Guiam, The Philippine Daily Inquirer.

Opinion piece: Are ‘natural disasters’ natural? (part 1), 17 January 2023, Rufa Cagoco-Guiam, The Philippine Daily Inquirer.

Opinion piece: On extreme weather events and conflict (part 1), 2 August 2022, Rufa Cagoco-Guiam, The Philippine Daily Inquirer.

Opinion piece: On extreme weather events and conflict (part 2), 9 August 2022, Rufa Cagoco-Guiam, The Philippine Daily Inquirer.

Opinion piece: On extreme weather events and conflict (part 3), 16 August 2022, Rufa Cagoco-Guiam, The Philippine Daily Inquirer.

Working paper: Between ayuda and resilience: Centring local voices for disaster aid and capacity building policy in climate and conflict-fragile communities.

Working paper: Climate and security risks and their implications to sustainable livelihoods: The case of Maguindanao in conflict-ridden Philippine Bangsamoro

Working paper: Weathering fragilities: Applying a climate-fragility risk assessment tool to the Philippine Bangsamoro.

Media Coverage

Arguillas, C. 24 October 2022. Research probes links between extreme weather events and violent conflicts in the Bangsamoro. Mindanews. Read here.

Workshops

Forum-Workshop on Climate Fragility Risks with academics from South Cotabato, Sarangani, Sultan Kudarat, and General Santos City, 2 August 2023

Workshop on Climate Fragility Risks with Bangsamoro government officials, academics, media practitioners, and representatives of international organisations and NGOs, Koronadal City, South Cotabato, 12 and 13 July 2022